Today, someone asked me what the next bubble to pop would be. We were talking about alternative energy and how things had petered out and with public funding going, how it looked to be in dire straits. He wanted me to give him a “right now” answer and so I said; “How about robotics?” But then I thought how that wasn’t really true in all sectors or industries and robotics is in nearly all modern industries today, many of these robots are very much entrenched and have been for a while, so they are not going anywhere. For instance the car washing industry with robotic tunnel mechanisms, we’ve had those since 1955.
Okay so, after thinking about this, it occurred to me that there are several other challenges on the horizon. How about China’s economy? How about the industrial healthcare complex in the US? Or, better yet how about college education. All are in series and unsustainable bubble building and a bubble as some economists say are always looking for a pin. And even if the pin which is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back isn’t the real cause for the cascading fall from grace, it only takes one final mistake in the comedy of errors to have a catastrophe China’s silk road economic belt.
If you study chaos, complexity and the failure of large scale systems, or even NTSB reports of aviation disasters you’ll see it too. It’s not one thing, it’s often 4 or 5 all in sequence along with corrections made to realign the system which turn out to be more good intentions paving the road to disaster. Healthcare in the US is unsustainable and just about everything the government has done to fix it, has made it worse, harder to get, more costly and more inefficient – that just cannot continue to work. So, healthcare is the next bubble to pop.
Of course, education isn’t far behind. And as our regulators go after For-Profit-Colleges this eliminates the much needed competition for the runaway costs of higher education at our public and private colleges and universities. So, that’s a huge bubble, with student tuition rising, student debt climbing, and online education ready to take a hyper-spacing bite out of the pie – are you a college professor – are you worried yet, because tenure won’t save you this time.
Last, China, well, their economic numbers are about as bogus as our own government’s jobs numbers, further, that level of wishful thinking (GDP growth) was never sustainable in the first place, it’s just a mathematical improbability, so it’s nothing personal. Now then, are we ready for the implosion of these three bubbles in the same decade? Well, ready or not here comes the bowling ball, and those pins will be flying soon – to a bubble near you. Please consider all this and think on it.